Galactic Punks— Holder behavior ( diamond hand or paper hand?)
Galactic punks is the first punks exist in the Terraverse which gained a lot of attention of Lunatics. The mint is a huge success and what now? This article will analyze on the behavior of those holders. What is holding back the floor price and is people actively trading their GP (galactic punks)? We are utilizing Flipside Crypto data for this analysis.
Sales of galactic punks trend
First we look into those buy transactions and number of buyer on galactic punks. First day after mint the volume is the highest with over 3500 of punks being traded or sold. This trend started to decay and becoming less and less active overtime. This might indicate less buyer interested in collecting GP or there is many diamond hand which not going to sell their GP.
We also calculate the ratio of buy transactions per unique buyer. On the first day we can see the ratio is sitting at 4 which means one unique buyer are buying 4 GP. However this ratio drop quickly overtime and is now sitting at ratio of 1. Now one unique buyer will only be buying one GP. Is this because of the listing price too high or there is no demand? we will see that in the coming chart.
Daily Floor, Ceil, and sale of GP
The floor of GP is holding up quite toughly at around 30 to 40 LUNA. One things to notice here is the average sale are always above of those floor price. Lunatics are valuing their GP higher than what the rest of GP holders are. Nevertheless the average sale are dropping and is now stagnant together with the floor price. For the maximum sale daily, one the second day after minting process, there is one huge outlier of 15000 LUNA being traded for that punks. Whale are targeting for their favorite GP.
Listing (post order) vs delisting (cancel order) of GP
To determine the behavior of those holders we need to look into their listing and cancel order transactions. Are they trying to list to sell their punk or are they impatiently listing and cancel their order to list at a lower price or vice versa. How frequent do they cancel their order or how frequent their list their GP ?
First we look at the listing and cancel listing count of GP. On first day after mint, there is total listing of more than 8k to be on sale and almost 3k of cancel listing transactions. Recall that there is only 10.9 k of GP. There is a lot of speculator trying to flip their profit after mint.
8686/ 10900 = 79.68% By rough calculation there is 80% of those minter trying to sell their GP to flip their profit. Due to the minting process of distribution of whitelist and public sale, most of the people do not get their hand on getting whitelist and hence only can purchase it on secondary market.
This trend started to decay and now the daily listing and cancel listing of those GP are just around 500 and 200. Most of the GP had now transfer to those with diamond hand by looking into this listing trend.
Still there is some traders or paper hand trying to trade their GP. The ratio of listing / cancel are still around 2 which mean each trader are at least cancelling their order once and listing it again. Due to the less active sale on GP market, traders will now need to list it lower to get their order fulfilled.
User count in listing vs delisting of GP
How many unique users that trying to list or cancel the order of their GP? After the first day of minting process, there is total of 2k users trying to list their GP and 1k users trying to delist their GP. Notice how everyday the listing users are always higher than those who delisting their GP.
One interesting facts by observing the chart below is the number of GP own per unique seller. The ratio of listing per seller and ratio of cancelling listing per seller are sitting at the same height for each day. This give an indicator of they need to cancel 1 listing in order for them to post the new listing 1. It is a 1 to 1 ratio means those traders now are roughly having only 1 GP to trade every time. But the real distribution we will need to look into those traders wallet.
MAX & MIN price of listing and canceling listing of GP
First we look into both daily minimum listing and delisting price of GP holders. The minimum listing price are always lower than those delisting. Day by day there is some GP holders trying to sell their GP fast so they need to list it below the floor price to attract the buyers. For the time being we see both the minimum listing and delisting price are now stagnant around 40 LUNA. Maybe those now the holders are of those with diamond hand? They are not going to sell their GP with cheap price.
Very interestingly we see the both the maximum listing and delisting price of GP are more than 1 trillion of LUNA. But in the first place, those listing at these price plan to not sell their GP right? Why would they cancel the listing? I can only say those are paper hand or speculators trying to become rich overnight and suddenly realize it is not possible to sell at these insane price.
Listing and cancel distribution per day of GP
The overall trend is good to show the listing trend are decreasing. This means less and less seller going to sell their GP and decide to become a true holders of GP. On the other hand, we would like to see the delisting trend in relation with the listing trend. When less people are listing and more people are delisting, this will cause the supply to decrease significantly. When the same demand come over this will easily push up the floor of GP.
Listing and cancel distribution of GP
Starting from the first day of GP trading, we see more than 89% of those listing are lower than 1k of LUNA and only 10% are listing above 1k LUNA. So in overall distribution only 10% of those holders are royal. For the delisting distribution, good things we see there is around 81% of users trying to delist their GP of under 1k LUNA. Like what I mentioned above, more delisting and less listing will eventually push up the price. So what is the case behind of those GP holders? In GP case, they are trying to list it even lower for exit liquidity to LUNA. Why did I say so? Let’s see the top 10 address that listing and delist those GP.
Top 10 seller that List vs Cancel
We look closely and carefully into the top 10 seller that list and cancel their order. The top 3 for both is the same address and there is 7 of those overlap with the list and cancel listing. These 7 address are the most active in trading GP overall. The top 1 had list transactions of over 400 and cancel listing of over 300. Due to the low fees and ease of trading over randomearth secondary market, these address are actively listing and delisting their punk for flipping. This kind of things are never achievable in ethereum network due to their high gas fees. Imagine 1 cancel listing transactions had cost you 5$. 400 times of cancel listing alone had cost you 2000$ (what if the gas was high?).
Now the sale transactions had decreasing and indicating a less active trading over GP and more of those fall into diamond hand. With the floor price hanging around 40 LUNA, and the trend of listing their GP become lower and lower, holders of GP tend to stay with the GP. With the current distribution of 4.9k unique owner over 10.9k punks on terra, the maximum each can own is around 2 punk per users. As time goes by this will be the factor in determine the value of each GP. Nevertheless, before GP floor price shoot up we will need to monitor those active traders that are trying to trade the GP for profit. NFT on LUNA can even on par with NFT on ETH due to their lower transactions cost. When the times comes, NFT on LUNA will dominate over any other chain.
By Ah Kek
Data from Flipside Crypto